تحليل مواسم الجفاف المناخي في المرتفعات الجبلية الشمالية والوسطى في الأردن للفترة (1984-2023) باستخدام مؤشر (SPI)

Abstract

The study aimed to identify the climatic drought seasons in the northern and central mountainous regions of Jordan during the period 1984-2023 and to evaluate and analyze seasonal and periodic drought. To achieve the study’s objectives, the descriptive-analytical method, the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI), and five-year moving averages were employed. The SPI results indicated that Ras Munif, Jerash, and Amman Civil Airport stations were the most affected by drought, with approximately 23 drought seasons recorded. Seasonally, autumn and winter were the most drought-prone, with 25 drought seasons. Among all the drought categories, moderate drought ranked first occurring in 18 seasons of the study area, which was 45% of all the drought events. The moving averages showed that the period between 2005/2006 and 2016/2017 was the longest and most severe drought period during the study timeframe. Furthermore, the study found that the frequency of drought seasons had an increasing trend towards the second period (2004 – 2023). Specifically, the first period recorded about 10 drought seasons out of 20 seasons, compared to 12 drought seasons in the second period. The study recommends further future research on climate change and predicting expected climatic drought seasons.